The U.S. housing market could see continued momentum throughout 2026, with both existing-home sales and median home prices projected to increase by 4%, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). The forecast reflects expectations for steady demand despite mortgage rates remaining higher than many buyers became accustomed to in recent years.
Existing-Home Sales Forecast for 2026
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects existing-home sales to increase by 4% during 2026. The organization also projects the national median home price to rise by 4% over the course of the year, signaling continued appreciation in home values even as borrowing costs remain elevated.
Mortgage Rates Expected to Average 6.5%
While financing costs continue to play an important role in the housing market, Yun projects the average mortgage rate for 2026 to be approximately 6.5%.
Even with rates at that level, homeowners are expected to continue building equity. NAR estimates that the average homeowner will gain roughly $16,000 in housing wealth during 2026 through home value appreciation.
Housing Wealth Continues to Grow
According to Yun, homeowners remain in a position to benefit from rising property values, while renters do not receive the same wealth-building advantage.
The continued increase in home equity highlights one of the long-term financial benefits of homeownership, even during periods of higher mortgage rates.
Economic Outlook Remains Stable
Beyond housing, NAR’s outlook calls for a relatively stable labor market in 2026. Yun expects the national unemployment rate to remain below 5%, while approximately 400,000 new jobs are projected to be added during the year.
A healthy employment market is generally viewed as an important factor supporting housing demand because it provides buyers with greater financial stability and confidence.
Long-Term Home Price Outlook
Looking well beyond 2026, Yun believes home values will continue their long-term upward trend. He projects the national median home price to increase from roughly $430,000 today to approximately $1 million over the next 25 years.
What This Could Mean for Buyers and Sellers
If these projections prove accurate, 2026 would represent another year of modest but steady growth for the housing market. Rising home prices and increased existing-home sales suggest continued demand, while homeowners may continue building equity over time.
For buyers, mortgage rates are expected to remain an important consideration. For current homeowners, ongoing appreciation could further strengthen long-term housing wealth as the market continues to evolve.
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